Products & Services
It’s inevitable, tomorrow gadgets will be better
By Charlie on 23 September 2009
BOSTON, USA – You do realize that, on average, most devices tomorrow will be better than devices in the same categories today? Yes, you do. Yet, for the most part, folks will constantly kvetch that we’ve released an EVEN BETTER device than the one they’ve been salivating over or just bought.
What can we do about this? And what are the implications of this relentless march of technology? Read on for a few more points around this topic and then feel free to let loose with how this “progress” really makes you feel.
Obsolescence
All tech, from canoes to carriages, to castles to computers, evolves. Ever the manic tool-maker, humans tinker and play with things, trying to understand how to make a tool better, more efficient, and cheaper to make.
Right now, mobile devices are going through a rapidly changing phase, where multiple times a year, projects are started that incorporate the latest and greatest. Part of this is the passion of the device creators, stretching the possible to provide the ultimate tool. The other part is the craving multitudes, who want those ultimate tools.
But, when you’re producing a ton of devices at a rapid clip for a wide range of people, you get a constant overlap of products, where as soon as one is on the market there is one with a slightly more desirable feature set. That then sets of a perpetual cycle of desiring an immanently available device and, when the time comes to acquire it, an ambivalence selecting it over the next immanently available device.
Wake up
My advice has been the same for many years: just get the best device today. Forget about the next announced device. You know that adage “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush?” Well, that’s quite relevant here. You will get more use out of a device today than waiting for that ultimate device tomorrow.
And, yes, be ready to see a more desirable device be announced as soon as you buy one today. Just look at the newly announced device, laugh, and know that you will not get it. Because when you are ready to get your next device, there will already be an even more desirable one for you.
It’s inevitable.
The dark underbelly
We really cannot talk about obsolescence without mentioning what happens to all the devices that are discarded. We’ve written previously about recycling, take-back schemes, and the like. So, remember to recycle your old mobile device (which of course you coveted, only to discard for another more covet-able device).
What do you think?
Of course, I’ve seen comments all over related to this march of tech. So, feel free to use the space below to kvetch, laud, or comment on what this all means to you.
Related posts:
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:50 pm
I think what this post will do is bring up the issue of paid software upgrades.
Soon we will reach a time where the hardware will become exceedingly similar for most devices and the only major difference would be the form factor. A hardware refresh would only happen once in 18 months or so. Eg. Currently a 5MP camera is enough for a lot of people and so is the other feature set (WIFI, GPS etc). Therefore, these become irrelevant for people when they consider an upgrade. What matters is the experience and the software. Thus, when you have a hardware standpoint that will remain stable for sometime (say the N900’s) then the motivation for a lot of people will only be the software/experience (Maemo 6).
So instead of people having to buy a new device when a new version of the OS or a Feature Pack comes out, such upgrades could be offered for a fee. The manufacturer would then make money on the software upgrade to offset the R&D and the consumer would also find a way out of the should I buy or wait dilemma, secure in the knowledge that he would not only get access to new FW’s but also major OS upgrades.
I know many would question the profitability for the manufacturer and therefore the motivation, but if it is priced right, I see a lot of people upgrading.
Reply
James Reply:
September 24th, 2009 at 10:01 am
There’s certainly something in this. The commoditization of mobile device hardware is clearly evident, so it’s fairly unsurprising that a consumer’s purchasing decision is shifting towards the software and the experience itself.
I wonder what the operators – that have historically made their dough with a 1-2 year device upgrade business model – will do in the future.
Reply
Hary Reply:
September 25th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
This can make sense, when there is honest sincerity followed in the business model rather than just making revenues and also if handset were cheaper to buy initially.
I wonder how many would buy a $600 handset like N900 and then pay for software upgrades?
I personally think that where Nokia stands currently in terms of their software capability, they should not even think about this as they themselves know that their software is not compelling enough to make customers buy their devices for software features unlike Apple or Android.
For ex: S60v5 has so many bugs and issues which are not solved in the 3 updates released so far and every time they release any update, they break something more. Sometimes, they don’t even know what are the bugs, they completely over-look them.
Apple knew that charging for software was not a good idea, hence they started this App store concept where they are making more money than one can make by charging for software updates. Nokia needs to direct their attention to their App store, which is a crap in comparison to Apple.
Reply
September 23rd, 2009 at 7:59 pm
I agree with this article partially if all the companies were following the same thing for just innovation and developing new things and not just introducing different products to just make a mullah.
Also in mobile market, there are two separate things called: Hardware and Software.
Instead of talking in general about this topic, i will just point out some analogies related to this article.
Nokia released 5800XM. Then they released cheaper 5530 and 5230 and a higher version X6. All of them carry the same OS S60v5 with 5800 being the first one in the family.
However, 5800 software has inferior features compared to 5530 and 5230, doesn’t have kinetic scrolling or contact carousel, inspite of being more expensive than the other two.
Now, if you were to follow this article, then it means that 5800 users don’t deserve and nor should expect the same software features as 5530 and 5230, etc.
That doesn’t make sense. All 3 of the above handsets have capable underlying hardware to support same software on all 3. So 5800 can have the same features with a software update.
One can understand different phones having different hardware features, but different hardware can support same software, with of-course, the same software supporting more features on a better/newer hardware.
One can understand the difference between N97 and 5800 inspite of using the same OS, but I am looking for someone to give me a convincing reason for the software difference between 5800 and 5530/5230 and i will stop “kvetching”(if that’s what this is called according to Nokia conversations).
Apple/Palm/Android all release software updates which are compatible with their older phones with the more advanced/newer features being supported on newer hardware, but if the hardware is capable of supporting same features they offer the same software to all their handsets and also to all the markets at the same time, i believe.
But Nokia doesn’t follow that path, it follows a more convoluted/complex path making their life harder and customers angry and eventually loosing customers.
This used to work in the past when Nokia was a dominant player, but time has changed and one needs to change with the time, else something is inevitable and you know what is that something.
Reply
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:11 pm
When you are poor it’s even worse: you must get the best you can with your limited money, knowing what is the best you could get with more money *and* what is the new thing that is coming in the near future. OTOH the larger distance to the edge means more information and time to think about your purchase. That and the force of the financial restriction makes it easier for you to accept what you get.
Reply
September 23rd, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Boy have you opened a can of worms here!
Your article rings true in most cases, except when Nokia releases the the N97 with crippled hardware so that it can’t even perform as shown in the pre-launch promotional videos. And it leaves a real bad taste to know that the N900 was advance into development when the N97 was launched. I know Nokia keep on stating that the products are for different markets, but just think how much better the N97 would have been received if it had similar hardware to the N900?? How many less return would there have been? How many less complaints there would have been noted?.
I don’t know how this fits with your article, but I can tell you that it has shaken the faithful and now there is a trust issue with Nokia as a company.
DelboyG
Reply
September 24th, 2009 at 1:34 am
Announcing new models even six months before they were available, I think it was (three years ago or so) not a final user helping strategy but only a marketing campaign. But if nowadays presentation time are shorter it’s only for new market rules. The growing expectations for the new models is a near-zero cost commercial: previews, first views, anticipations only feeds the wait for the release. This hurry also impacts on the final quality of the products: it is a common sense that firsts bunches of new Nokia phones are buggy, misfunctioninig or even faulty; firsts buyers are friendly called “beta testers”. We can see more frequently the evo versions of some models: N95 8GB, some “i” versions, N97 mini etc. It sounds like the owners of the bare models have missed the rigth choice…
I think a leader company like N should stop this absurd policy: we all love their phones but all of them still lacks in something.
Maybe they could simplify the production and release a slight number of models in a year, helping the users in the choice of new phone. Re-assigning employees to less projects could be in the case of coming ready with the product when it is ready to sell.
Finally I think N should drive the market choices and not follow them.
Reply
September 24th, 2009 at 9:18 am
I think it’s disgusting! Here we are on the brink of global catastrophe and business is still happy to waste resources like there is no tommorow.
If it’s in the name of profit then it will continue until the very end.
It’s like the government trying to lean on people in an attempt to persuade them to car share and cut down on pollution; and where are the electric cars that would remove said pollution entirely? Safely locked away so the greed mongers can keep raking it in to the detriment of us all.
Back on topic… The Nokia 5800 is a prime example of a phone capable of great things being held back by a greedy company who want us all to buy several phones per year. I can’t see it changing anytime soon, unless as someone mentioned they start charging people twice…once to get the phone and then again for the firmware that actually makes it work as advertised 6 months down the line.
Reply
September 24th, 2009 at 9:59 am
New and better devices will come and that’s just great. Thinking that the ultimate technology is here now would be a dark vision of the future.
But this must not be mistaken with the release of devices that have the same hardware and only differs on software. I do not have to buy a new PC to change from Windows XP to Vista or change my console every time a new game is release.
I think it’s an obligation of the companies to maintain support for their devices within their lifetime and maximizing it. One device should last at least 2-3 years and not 6-12 months.
The company that maintain support of their devices will win a loyal client for many years.
In fact Petitions going on asking Nokia for something that the customers should have without even having to ask is not the publicity that a great company should have.
Reply
September 24th, 2009 at 10:26 am
These are all very poignant comments. For example, personally I tend not to be that interested in the upcoming brand new devices for sake of their “newness”. It’s more about the framework a particular choice would put me in. ‘Cause now, every other company are showcasing their own app store, music store, e-mail, maps, video services etc. So it’s a choice between where do you put your “life” in. And stuff like… what OS do you have on your home computer, what browser you like to use, where is your music library currently… they all have some part in the choice. And I think that the companies that are able to make this choice credible and accessible are the ones who will stay in business.
Reply
September 24th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Hi,
Now for my 2 cents …
Your article is true when we talk about technology in terms of hardware. Research and development would obviously lead to devices getting obsolete almost as soon as you buy them.
However, if we were to look at this from a software’s perspective, then companies which CAN provide updated software to existing users should really be doing so as much as possible. Now I am not suggesting that Microsoft should give Windows 7 to all users with licensed Windows Vista (although that would be redemption !!) … that’s a different and new product altogether. But then software/firmware updates (like Windows patches) are a norm, not merely as bug fixes but as additional features as well.
Just because Nokia did not have the software for kinetic scrolling or improved homescreen at the time the 5800 was released does not mean that they do not provide that to the 8 million odd users who have the handset now … simply because THEY CAN. It is a matter of building customer confidence and goodwill towards a company or brand.
As an example from a non-technological perspective, a Public Limited company is not forced to declare dividend to existing policy or share holders, but they do. It improves perception in the industry and pulls in more investors to the company. If a car manufacturer continues to provide service and spares for a discontinued model even after the legally stipulated time period, it increases customer confidence in this company.
Similarly, if Nokia was to provide updated features in software/firmware to existing owners, then it would compel them to always go for Nokia products in the future, since they would know that they would be taken care of in the long term.
Reply
September 25th, 2009 at 1:03 am
Looks like you siad it yourself. Tons of new junk being pumped out every day, cant keep up woth the market of the disposable product.
Hellloooooo, is there anybody in there?
See what the guys said above me, i will NEVER buy another nokia device again, the software has painfull to the user Bugs, and your to freaking busy making excuses and pumping out one more device quick.
Reply
September 25th, 2009 at 1:07 am
“And, yes, be ready to see a more desirable device be announced as soon as you buy one today. Just look at the newly announced device, laugh, and know that you will not get it. Because when you are ready to get your next device, there will already be an even more desirable one for you.”
This paragraph from the OP is funny and makes me laugh.
I think the above thing happens in case of Nokia, who releases more models than they themselves can handle or support. So when that happens to millions of customers, they are not going to laugh it out, they are going to laugh in anger at Nokia and would avoid buying Nokia next time when there will be other better alternatives available as they are now increasingly available.
If this article is an indication of Nokia’s business accumen for the future, then i guess, this is the beginning of the ending of the empire, unless the faith and enthusiasm is restored in the empire’s public again before it is too late.
Reply
September 25th, 2009 at 4:15 am
I partially agree with Vaibhav. This idea of cheaper method to get the new features is very common and sometimes in hardware. In fact Nokia has its own recycling program which lets you return the device you have for some value, obviously much less than what you paid first.
Anyway, to expand on this, Nokia could definitely allow hardware upgrades at the moment. I’ll turn in my 5800 + some extra cash for their next device. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to Nokia how many users are willing to do this.
Reply
September 25th, 2009 at 5:57 am
I’m very pleased with my new 5530, it’s like all of my childhood gadgets fused into one: flash(ing)light, Walkman, FM Stereo (L+R), pocket camera, camcorder, PDA… and a few I never dreamt I’d have: web browser and a phone! But perhaps 5800 owners will be upset as most of you seem to be, dissatisfied for whatever reason, then blame it on Nokia.
I sometimes feel entitled to a cheaper Windows 7 upgrade, having gotten Vista with my “old” PC, but then that’s just my greed talking.
To be sure, I opted for the 5530 instead of N900 not just because of price, but also of the thought that Maemo 5/6 needs time to mature, despite its Maemo 4 heritage, while s60 has been polished for a year now, even though the hardware seem 98% perfection.
But yeah, I know what I’m buying into, and rather put my efforts into dealing with the reality rather than keep hoping for more.
Reply
Hary Reply:
September 25th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
@ Jack Wang,
Vista to Windows 7 upgrade is a totally different scenario than say 5800 S60v5 to 5530/5230 s60v5. These phones carry same software version but still different features? How is that logical? That’s most irrirating thing i have seen Nokia doing giving different features in different phones inspite of same OS?
Its ridiculous and Nokia will learn that in year or two from now, when the 5800 owners will shun Nokia altogether.
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 3:05 am
Hey folks, awesome range of comments.
There were a lot of Nokia specific comments, so I’d like to reiterate that this behaviour is common across the WHOLE electronics industry. Walk into any major electronics store and into any section – washer machines to vacuum cleaners to audio and TV equipment to navigators – ALL electronics manufacturers operate on this principle.
What suprises me (and I speak as an industry observer and not someone propounding Nokia’s business acumen) that with all the comments customers like you all have made, the electronics industry still drives this planned obsolescence.
The video, Story of Stuff,
And, once again, thanks for all the great comments.
Reply
João Oliveira Reply:
September 28th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
You will have to forgive me… but that sounds more like a BIG excuse rather than a reason.
We are not talking of new technologies. It’s new software !
Of course, everything will be replaced in a near future but this doesn’t mean less than 6-12 months.
And when you compare a phone to a Vacuum Cleaner, I think there is no more space to a reasonable discussion. And you do know that Navigators do have software upgrades, don’t you ?
If you have seen the Story of Stuff, you should have learned not to waste Earth resources and think only on profit. Earth can be a better place when we think more in people and less in money.
Reply
Hary Reply:
September 28th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Hi Charlie,
Nice to see your comment in here.
Ofcz, these comments were Nokia-centric and that is expected,right? as this is Nokia’s blog, most of the visitors are Nokia users and this is a topic that covers the area in which most of the Nokia users are dis-satisfied.
My comments above and here are also as an Industry observer.
You said “ALL electronics manufacturers operate on this principle”. I guess that’s a wrong observation then. I hope Nokia itself doesn’t have the same observation for a longer time, else…..
Do you consider Apple or Manufacturers using Android OS as a part of Electronics Industry?
Did Apple have a different OS for iphone, iphone 3G, and iphone 3GS except the different features depending on different hardware aspects, else its all same and free software upgrade.
HTC also gives free Android updates for its handsets as far as the hardware can support the features.
Similarly, i think many of the windows mobile 6.1 handsets are going to get free WM 6.5 update which is considered considerably different than 6.1.
IF you are comparing a cell phone company to WashingMachine, TV then i can’t help it, as you should be comparing to other cell phone companies in the market first as they are the ones who can bring down the Nokia empire and not TV/Washing Machine companies.
I agree that “the electronics industry still drives this planned obsolescence”, but Nokia’s planned obsolescence is sometimes quite different than others, believe it or not.
There have been only 10-12 comments from distinct users here on this topic. Had you posted this topic at some active forums, you might have got hundreds and hundreds of replies echoing same sentiment.
It will be disappointing if this is going to be Nokia’s path ahead according to their perceived Industry observation.
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Hmm, so Apple with iPhone must be in some other “fast paced world of technology”, because older models are getting new software with features from younger models.
Reply
September 28th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Because of this way of thinking after a short come back to nokia i’ll leave them for good. What’s happening with 5800 is the perfect example how these company treat their costumers. The post made by charlie is just the confirmation.
Thinking that way, N97 shouldn’t get anything with the next firmware update. But they’ll get features from the new gadgets. Because it’s expensive? No, but we all know why…
Reply
October 1st, 2009 at 10:46 pm
From reading some comments in this site, why am I getting the impression that many customers are upset with nokia, especially by charlie’s answers / point-of-views? See the other thread on (inexistent) SIP client for N97.
Reply
October 24th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
I have a Nokia 5800 , I ant to know how i can download answering machine for my phone ?
Reply